2005/01/31

Iraq Election

Here is an account of the election from what is probably one of the most difficult places in Iraq.

It's hard to say exactly what will happen next. It looks like about 25%-30% of the population voted, so the elected government doesn't seem to have a particularly strong mandate. Civil war between Sunnis and Shiites seems likely, although it depends a lot on what the government does.

I don't think that the US will get the Quisling government that it wants. However I think giving the Shiites a legitimate political voice is a step forwards. It could backfire if they ask the US to leave, which the leader of the main Shiite party has said he will do.

It's also possible that granting the Kurds a political identity will create tensions with Turkey. The Kurds are now one step closer to having a state of their own.

The Sunnis are alienated from the political process, and this is going to be a problem. It will most likely be the central problem of post-election Iraq. They have no interest in being part of a strong functioning state, and will not support it. They can be brought back into the process, but this will be difficult if the Shiites are perceived to act against the Sunnis. If the Iraqi army helps the Americans in combat against Sunnis, the problem of alienation will swiftly escalate.

It's certain there will be "interesting times" in Iraq for some time to come.
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2 comments:

Art Neuro said...

This made me laugh:

"Boom! Boom! Bomb-a!" Sasse yelled Thursday, as the day opened with Marine-set detonations to blow up a dirt road that could be used as an alternate route for attackers when traffic shuts down for Sunday's vote. He shooed away gathering crowds of Iraqi men and children.

"You mean explosives," an Iraqi man corrected him in English, before disappearing inside his front gate. I imagine that at some point there will be an expression of what exactly the fractured Iraqi population think is going to be a workable government. Having an election like this is probably a step in the right direction, even with low participation.

The long-term prognonsis on Iraq is still murky, but you can understand the mistrust that comes with 'Meet the New Boss, Same As The Old Boss', esepcially when the last boss was Saddam and his cronies, followed by a couple of pretty savage war/whupping action by the Americans. And yet Iraq is one of the few nations in that part of the world that is running something resembling a free election, so I think it's a net positive. Call me naive, but I think there's hope.

4:38 pm
Art Neuro said...

The following was in the news today from AP:

By GEIR MOULSON, Associated Press Writer

PARIS - World leaders, including French President Jacques Chirac and other leading opponents of the war in Iraq (news - web sites), heaped praise on Iraqi voters Monday for their strong turnout in landmark elections, saying terrorists were the losers.


Chirac called President Bush (news - web sites) to say he was satisfied and to reiterate a French offer to train Iraqi security forces and civil servants.


The European Union (news - web sites) also said it was prepared to send more aid to bolster Iraq's move to democracy.


"These elections mark an important step in the political reconstruction of Iraq. The strategy of terrorist groups has partly failed," Chirac told Bush, according to the French leader's spokesman.


Praise from world capitals was tempered by concerns over the low turnout among Iraq's once-powerful Sunni Muslim minority and appeals to Iraqi authorities not to exclude any peaceful ethnic, religious or political groups as they draft a constitution.


It could take up to 10 days for final results to be known, but Shiites, who comprise 60 percent of Iraq's 26 million people, were expected to dominate the new government.


There also was pressure for a pullout by U.S.-led troops amid warnings that difficulties ahead made that unlikely to happen soon.


In Washington, White House spokesman Scott McClellan said the U.S. mission was to "put Iraq on a path to democracy and in position to defend themselves. And then our troops can return home with honor."


Bush plans to visit Europe next month, and the fact that Sunday's election for a National Assembly and provincial legislatures was not the disaster some skeptics predicted could help improve trans-Atlantic ties.


"We must work together in our common interest, wherever we stood on the question of whether it was right to go to war," said German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer, whose country, like France and Russia, opposed the U.S.-led invasion but supports efforts to rebuild Iraq.


In Brussels, Belgium, EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana told The Associated Press that Iraq's move toward democracy would generate more aid for the country. The 25-nation bloc wants to help draft Iraq's new constitution and train its judiciary and security forces, he said.


But EU ministers also were concerned that the low turnout by Sunni Arabs could alienate them further, leading to deeper divisions between them and other ethnic groups.


"That is the only problem of a good day," Solana said.


Polish Foreign Minister Adam Rotfeld said the solution was to offer Sunnis positions in the new government.


"If I were in the place of the Iraqi authorities, I would offer Sunnis a large representation in the executive, bearing in mind that an internal rift is a threat to Iraq," Rotfeld said.


Russian President Vladimir Putin (news - web sites), backtracking from a harsh warning in December that elections could not be fair under U.S.-led occupation, said the vote was "undoubtedly a step toward democratization."


"The very fact of it is an important event, maybe a historic event, for the Iraqi people," Putin said.





Russia "will do its utmost to help the settlement in Iraq and around it," he pledged.

British Prime Minister Tony Blair (news - web sites), who has faced strong criticism for standing with Bush on Iraq, was said by his spokesman to be very encouraged by the turnout. Blair also spoke with Bush on Monday.

Despite violence that killed at least 44 people, including nine suicide bombers, Iraq's electoral commission said it believed that turnout among the estimated 14 million eligible Iraqi voters appeared higher than the 57 percent, or roughly 8 million, predicted before Sunday's poll.

Official turnout figures were not yet available.

Britain's foreign minister, Jack Straw, told the House of Commons the election was "a real blow" to Iraqi insurgents' "disgusting campaign of violence and intimidation."

"These elections were a moving demonstration that democracy and freedom are universal values, to which people everywhere aspire," Straw said.

Britain has contributed the second-largest military force to the coalition. Blair opponents have called for a timetable for withdrawing those 9,000 troops — a demand rejected as unhelpful by Iraq's ambassador to Britain, Salah al-Shaikhly.

"Coalition forces are not a luxury. They will leave the moment we can control our own security in Iraq. They are not there just for the sake of it," the ambassador said.

Italian Premier Silvio Berlusconi, a staunch U.S. ally on Iraq, said he hoped the elections would help spread democracy in the Arab world, "where there is authoritarian rule, where the situation of women is not one of liberty or dignity, where there are still many steps to make to emerge from the Middle Ages."

Jordan's King Abdullah II said the election "will set a good tone for the Middle East. I'm very optimistic."

But Abdullah, a Sunni Arab who previously accused Shiite-dominated Iran of trying to influence the elections, also said Sunni participation appeared "a lot lower than any of us hoped."

Indonesia, the world's most populous Muslim nation, said it was encouraged by Sunday's turnout, and Malaysian Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi said he hoped results would be "credible enough to enable the government to draft a new constitution." Which seems to indicate the election was received well by many parties with an interest in seeing a better future for Iraq.

11:40 am

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