2022/05/22

Federal Election Night 2022

And It Finally Ended

Jeez. It took 9 years but this government of miscreants that started with the Idiot Abbott, is finally put out to pasture. Now that he is headed for the door, Scomo sure was a weird Prime Minister, as much as Malcolm Turnbull sandwiched in-between was redundant. It's hard to believe such a government went 3 terms, as clearly it was in turmoil as it had 3 Prime Ministers in 3 terms. That's weird too. 

The rise of the 'teal' candidacy is probably a historic inevitability given how far to the right the Liberals swung and left urbane ideas behind. A bunch of highly educated professional women with Liberal Party pedigrees running as independents in deeply entrenched inner city Liberal seats obviously did the trick. The Sydney North Shore, Northern Beaches together with the Eastern Suburbs has gone 'teal'. Gone are Trent Zimmerman, Jason Falinski, and David Sharma. All I can say is, what took them so long? The great mystery to me has been all these well-educated, well-heeled women toeing the party line against their own personal interests. It's about time they woke up and went their own way. They're not my political friends, but I applaud them for wanting out at long last. It's a divorce that's been a long time coming.

Losing these women also raises the question where the Liberal Party is going to go. Amazingly, you saw no urgency about this existential threat from the Coalition in the weeks leading up to the vote, and arguably Scomo didn't address any of it in his concession speech. Again, he's a weird guy - but more on that later. He and his cohorts in government had plenty off opportunities to do something, even if just symbols to address the grievances of women in general - but they chose to do nothing. They couldn't possibly wonder how this election resulted in them getting kicked out by people who were once close to them. For now, we can see that the Liberal Party has been deserted by its women-folk, and that's kind of interesting. 

Climate Change As A Priority Issue

Maybe - just maybe - Climate Change (read GLOBAL WARMING) can stop being treated like a back burner as a result of this election. I remember thinking that when Kevin Rudd won, but, no, that didn't work out quite that way. Tony Abbott came storming back on the climate-denial vote. That said if you look at the 11 cross benchers in the lower house, all of whom who ran on Climate as a leading issue, you would expect that perhaps Albo has a shot at getting something concrete done. It would be nice if once and for all if the Coalition could get up to speed and just accept that it's a bloody big issue instead of trying to bury it for political posturing purposes. 

The rise of teal candidates tell you one thing - all the carping from the Murdoch press could not dissuade these electorates from the need to vote out the Liberals and get some action happening on the Global Warming problem.  

Up to now, there's been this weird dynamic where you were often incredulous as to whether the Coalition acted against having any kind of serious climate policies because they just didn't believe it as fact; or didn't want to believe it because of profit motive; or whether they did in fact believe it but were told to act like they didn't to preserve a voting block. If it was the last, then it sure didn't work out for the Coalition at all. If it was the former, two they need to go get an education and get their heads on straight in the coming years because the electorate has pretty much rejected climate change denialism. 

Boutique Retail Politics

You heard the phrase "all politics is local" a lot in the coverage on the ABC. You get the feeling that politicians say this to themselves in order not address the elephant in the room like China's ambitions in the region or the impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Instead we're treated to a kind of car-salesman like pitch about costs of living. While costs of living is important, you'd want to vote on more than just that issue alone, and not acknowledging that point as a politician is kind of retrograde. Anybody can argue for self interest. It takes a better candidate to argue for the interest of the community, the area, the state and the nation. 

In light of that the fragmentation of the electorate is a little irksome. The teal candidates are to retail politics what custom made branded goods are to retail goods. There's a hint of neo-liberal personalisation of politics that seems to have happened in the era of social media, and we are given a stronger sense of proximity to our candidates. In turn, the successful candidates are photogenic or long on social-media-savvy. A quick glance at the teal candidates gives you the distinct sense that this is a very personalised kind of body politic expressing itself. 

Is this good? Who knows? Yet it does open the door to the massively populist, lowest common denominator politics. So we should ask in the same breath was, say Trump good? Is Boris Johnson any good? As per the Gillard minority government before it, the new ALP government has its work cut out for it. 

The Old Codgers Died

The other aspect of all this that springs to mind is that the old codgers who were stubbornly conservative passed away between 2019 and 2022. The rich suburbs got inherited by their children, and these children are a lot more worldly than their parochially conservative parents. I mean, it must hurt the pride of those educated and conservative that they had to toe the line that Climate Change wasn't happening, or that we needed to keep doing fossil fuels at the expense of the planet because money talks and bullshit walks, or  simply play dumb like climate change is a non-issue. And if the climate wasn't the only thing where they had to play dumb to be nice, then surely the corruption and pork barrelling was hard to justify and defend and most certainly trying to defend a government that had a total disregard for women's issue must have been galling. 

Given how Queensland went in 2019, it's a bit surprising that the inner city of Brisbane got eaten out by the Greens, and chances are, it wouldn't have happened if the old codgers were still around to vote for the Coalition. There's a message in there for Anastasia Paluszczuk (I have to look up that spelling every single fucking time!). Maybe she can be a bit more confident and tell Adani to fuck off with their coal mine.

The Weirdness of Scomo

Scomo, in his time as PM has shown himself to be an utterly mendacious, lazy, selfish partisan git. But just as how we might describe somebody having a mean streak, I would say Scomo had a weird streak of decency over his mendacious, lazy, selfish, partisan git-tish ways. He stood by the importance of democracy (in spite of undermining its institutions through under-funding them) and he talked a good game for Australia's prospects (which have not diminished, have grown in his time, but has also reduced Australia to a quarry).

He is also, Australia's first Generation-X Prime Minister and goes into his post-political career at the tender age of 54. He was an MP for a mere 12 years before becoming PM, 15 years total to date. It is a meteoric career in once sense, that also came with controversies and a certain obliviousness to the nuances of anything. He was a stick-in-the-mud middle class dufus from Sutherland Shire. He characterised himself as a bulldozer towards the end of this campaign, but he was more bull-in-a-china-shop. He moved fast and broke things much as the motto goes at Facebook/Meta - it is not a good motto. 

As we go back to a Babyboomer PM in Anthony Albanese, the sheer anomalousness of Scomo's time in the Lodge sticks out. One certainly wouldn't have expected the Coalition to move to a Gen-X leader faster than the progressives. At this stage the ALP front bench looks like deeper veterans than the outgoing Prime Minister. 

I guess the circumstances of his rise to the office was weird as well. The Liberals had the choice of Julie Bishop, Peter Dutton, and Scott Morrison. For some reason only known to the deepest darkest recesses of the sexist collective mind of the Liberal party room, Julie Bishop in spite of all her experience was rejected in favour of Peter Dutton and Scott Morrison. Having disposed of their one credible female leadership candidate, the Liberals decided Peter Dutton was a bit too gauche and rightwing, so they they picked Scomo as a compromise. That turn of events is so weird it is not likely to be duplicated in future. 

All this has led to the incoming Albo Government to look almost nondescript and plain vanilla. I guess when you consider the abject anti-intellectualism of Tony Abbott at the start of the 3 terms, maybe it is not surprising that it ends with this chaotic, mendacious, lazy, whimper.   

2022/05/11

View From The Couch - 11/May/2022

The End of Globalism

Not so long ago - well it doesn't feel that long ago - Globalism seemed set as the way of the future. There would be more coming and going of goods and trade and ideas and education. Like it or lump it, we were all set to compete on a global stage and there was no escaping its tendrils as goods and services put together with global supply chains and global transportation made its way around the world. Globalisation looked like the kind of end point of history that say Francis Fukuyama might approve of; even allowing for these pockets of global players who didn't quite fit into the club of liberal democracies. You could argue Russia was coming along ever slowly towards seeing things the way the west sees them, and even China under the CCP seemed to prioritise making money over ideological purity thanks to Deng Xiao-Ping-ism.

Now in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, the bellicosity of Xi Jinping's China, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, some things have come into very sharp focus. The first thing on the list is that China under Xi - so China since about 2012 - has been a really crappy participant in the global order. The second is that Russia has also been a crappy participant in the global order. And between the two of them, their contributions have lessened to the point of making the first world wonder whether there is any merit in extending the welcome mat to these countries. 

To be sure, China is a big market that seemingly promises future growth except for the gigantic property bubble that has just popped. Russia, for its part is  tremendous exporter of oil, gas, wheat and fertilisers - so much so that the sanctions to remove Russia from the global markets is in a sense flirting with mass starvation scenarios. 

It's kind of amazing things have come to this, but the last decade has been to put it mildly a shit show for globalism. It is no wonder it is in retreat. For a while there, globalism looked so locked in, the people protesting against it in the late 1990s looked like ideological crazies. Now, globalisation is forced to being rolled back by the simple reality that you can't do business with countries with dictators like China and Russia. It may profit you in the short to mid term but in the long run, they're sure to screw you over. In that sense, there's not much daylight between Saddam Hussein and Vladimir Putin or Xi Jinping. 

The End of Deflationary Pressures

For some time we've been in this weird loop since the end of the Global Financial Crisis around March 2009. Governments have spent lots of stimulus money in the hopes of stoking inflation but all these quantitative easing and printing money did not lead to the kind of inflation they taught in schools. Part of the reason is that as the world went global, so did the money, so all the money printed by the US Fed or the RBA seemed to just flow out into the wider world and did not come back as inflation.

It's a complicated area but the bottom line is that even faster than the US was printing money, China had been exporting deflation to the world through its cheap labor. I think I've covered this phenomenon somewhere in the past so I'll skip going into it here. Suffice to say China's labor costs have been going up over the last decade, and so there probably has been less deflationary pressures that China was exporting, leading up to the Covid-19 pandemic. If the last 30 years of gentle economic growth for the first world was founded on Chinese manufacturing being so cheap and easy, that context is coming to a rapid end. 

Worse still China is the most indebted nation in history both in absolute terms as well as per capita, and for political reasons of the CCP needing to stay in power - or perhaps it's just Xi who needs to stay in power - they have blown up their property bubble. We have no idea how this is going to play out in global markets. Judging from the ructions of April and May, global markets do not like what is going down in China. Markets might approve and accept the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates, but it does not like the figures coming out of China. The supply chain issue that we have come to understand isn't just about the fact that China is in lockdown across its most productive cities. It's the fact that China itself has become this gigantic counter-party risk in the last few months. 

Some of the manufacturing the Chinese had been handed by foreign corporations is now being on-shored back to those very foreign shores. The reason we're seeing such stubborn inflation in the first world is simply because the deflationary pressure China brought to the world economy has been cut out of the loop. This means we can expect inflation to keep rising, and for interest rates to keep rising until those inflationary pressures are tamed. In turn this means we will be having that recession we had to have back in 2008-2009 that we didn't quite get because China took on the greatest debt in history to keep the punch bowl swirling. All of that, on top is about to get unwound out of China. 

Brace yourselves. This ride is going to be a bit rough.

Can Global Capitalism Even Be Fixed?

I'm sure people will make every effort to revive it, but right now, the forces are arrayed against it. 


  

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