The Great Argument between Knowledge of Performance and Knowledge of Results has been the centrepiece of baseball scouting for some years now. As you know, anything to do with 'Moneyball' is of interest to this blog, so I think it prudent to bring to you a round table disucssion of people who make their living out of assessing respectively, KP and KR.
It's a very good article and I'd love to quote it all, but shouldn't. This bit is kind of funny:
ALAN SCHWARZ: One thing that Eddie and Gary, you might not be aware of, is that a few years ago Voros came up with something called Defense Independent Pitching Stats, which . . .
EDDIE BANE: Alan, you said, "You guys may not be aware." That's one of the things we're battling. We are aware. I read these guys' stuff all the time.
ALAN SCHWARZ: I said, "May not be aware." Gary, have you ever heard of DIPS?
GARY HUGHES: No.
ALAN SCHWARZ: OK then! (Laughter)
EDDIE BANE: But I'm going to read everything I can, and on top of that have Gary Hughes in the ballpark to see what the guy does. We're trying to dispel these things. It's not like when we're drafting we spit tobacco at the board, and whatever name we hit is the guy we take. I've read this stuff.
GARY HUGHES: Is that what DIPS is? Tobacco? (Laughter)
EDDIE BANE: But someone who works with Gary has read this stuff.
ALAN SCHWARZ: OK, but Gary hasn't, so just explain to it quickly for him and the people who will be reading this later, it's a method where, essentially, looking mainly at a pitcher's strikeouts, walks and home runs allowed per inning does a better job of predicting ERA than even ERA does. It's very counterintuitive to see that singles and doubles allowed don't matter a whole lot moving forward. This shook up the statistics community and has become pretty widespread among stat-minded major league
executives as they evaluate talent markets. I'm curious, Gary (Hughes), how do you form opinions on which major league pitchers you might want to pursue and which ones you won't?
GARY HUGHES: History--you've got a long, long list of times to evaluate this guy. The numbers are somewhat important. I think the longer history you have with seeing a guy, you solidify the feeling you have. The first time I see him I have a feeling, five years from now I'm going to have a different feeling. There are so many darned factors that go into it.
EDDIE BANE: I will have read this (statistics) stuff before I go
It's interesting how the scouts feel victimised by the rise of quantitative analysis, and yet the only thing they can ever go on is intuitive qualitative, subjective understanding of performance; and to their horror, this stuff is incredibly hard to articulate.
And then ther'es this bit:
EDDIE BANE: That doesn't surprise me, but I don't believe it. I won 15 games in Triple-A two years in a row. I won seven games total in the major leagues. The level of play is completely different. We weren't into DIPS in '73 but I led the league in ERA both years. I wasn't good enough to pitch in the major leagues. You get up there and you lose the confidence level. David Newhan bounced around, he finally got an opportunity to play, he's all right. But where was he going to play for the Anaheim Angels other than on the bench? When it comes to the stats, I want to know who he's playing against, where he's playing at and who's he's hitting these balls against. I want Moose Stubing to find Brendan Donnelly (in the minors) because of how he saw Brendan Donnelly throw, not because of the statistical edge he might have had.
VOROS McCRACKEN: His statistics were excellent.
GARY HUCKABAY: Donnelly and Newhan were people we were screaming about for years.
EDDIE BANE: But the thing I'd like to hear--I know you guys work for two clubs - but it's easy to bring up Newhan and Donnelly. Scream about someone who's going to do it next year, or that we should be on. Right now. Because I'd like to know. Write it down and give it to Alan, and we'll look at it a year from now.
VOROS McCRACKEN: It's funny, I can't say the guy's name, but someone was just claimed from your organization that I was very interested in.
EDDIE BANE: Steven Andrade by the (Blue Jays) organization--we'll see how
that works.
VOROS McCRACKEN: His stats are great stats. They're flat-out great stats. I've never even seen him pitch. And even if I had, I'm not a scout. I wouldn't know what to look for. All I know is he's got great stats that very few other relief pitchers in the minor leaguers have.
Steven Andrade, scouted out of Annaheim Angels by the Toronto Blue Jays. Book that name and we'll come back to in a year.
- Art Neuro
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