I'm asking to be flamed again. But I figure if you start something, you gotta finish it right. Clay Davenport who writes for one of the most respected baseball analysis sites, Baseball Prospectus, has written this interesting report about Olympic Baseball. While Mr. Davenport uses a whole pile of interesting new statistical measures, his analysis comes down to this section that I found interesting:
So in some ways I feel vindicated about what I was seeing on the box scores and the problem of Olympics Baseball format.As you can see, the team the Japanese sent to Athens is essentially a major-league team; assuming our assumptions are correct, they could be expected to go 82-80 if they were playing in the NL. The Cubans were not quite as strong, but still played at a legitimate major-league level: 75-87 isn't a championship team, but they could certainly give a team like the Orioles a run for their money.
But then, we already knew that.
The next three teams were basically Double-A in quality. How is it, then, that the Australian team (a sub-Triple-A team, in my analysis) beat the Japanese (near-major league) in the tournament? Ignoring the rather large fact that one pitcher can completely change the quality of a team, the expected winning percentage for a .274 team like Australia going against a .322 team like Japan is about .300--plenty of room for an underdog to win what amounts to a one-game playoff.
- Art Neuro
2 comments:
Just a reminder of a five yo article you wrote. I think it stands the test of time. BTW, I'm not letting you off your recent mistake just because you can't follow the 'Horse before Cart' arguement. You argue well. I'm actually afraid of upsetting you. But you haven't adressed the central issue of my thesis, which weakens your case.
This week’s Top Ten: Top Ten athletes you’d choose to represent Earth in the ULTIMATE team in a game of survival against aliens. Watch out Martians!
1. Steve Waugh of Australia to Captain and bat at 3
2. Derek Jeter of the NY Yankees to play Shortstop and lead off batter,
3. Jonah Lomu of the All Blacks to play Wing.
4. Mathew Burke of the Wallabies to play Fullback,
5. Dan Marino of the Miami Dolphins to play Quarterback.
6. Mariano Rivera of the NY Yankees to pitch 9th inning closers.
7. Ranaldo of Brazil to play Striker.
8. Brad Fittler of Sydney City Roosters to play Five Eighth
9. ‘Penny’ Hardaway of the Pistons to play Forward.
10. Adam Gilchrist of Australia to play Wicket keeper and open.
It’s a balanced team with 2 Baseball players, 2 Cricket players, 2 Rugby Union players, and a lot of strength up front, speed in the middle while having a lot of depth in the backline. There’s good flexibility out wide, while there’s variety in the strokes that can be played.
Okay, I admit this is a team made up solely of offensive players, but I think whatever the cause is, the idea is to score more runs, points, and tries than the other team.
Imagine, lead off batter Jeter opens with Gilchrist, with Steve Waugh to come. There’s a line from Fittler, Lomu to Burke, explosive power, skill and daring down the line. Then, there’s Marino who could pass the long yards up the field straight to Ranaldo or Hardaway up front for devastating scoring opportunities! As the game draws to a close we bring in Rivera to close out the match…
Best news for Dave Ball: No Victorians?
The guys who almost made the cut but didn’t and the reasons…
• Roger Clemens and Orlando ‘El Duque’ Hernandes (they’re exceptionally good, but the other two Yankees are playmakers and playbreakers. Otherwise I’d be having all the ‘98-’99 Yanks play)
• Glen McGrath & Brett Lee (Yeah, yeah, but you need runs.)
• Michael Jordan. (He’s probably still just as good, but he is retired. )
• Steve Young (Dan Marino’s lifetime figures convinced me)
• John Elway (I know Dan’s just been forced to retire, but John Elway has been retired for a year. If I put him in, I’d have put in Michael Jordan, right?)
• Ben Tune (I couldn’t fit him and Lomu in)
• Kenneth Starr (A good offensive player and a team player, but I wasn’t sure about variety in his attack)
While we’re on it, how ‘bout this for a free-style tag-team debating team? The “Mouths”
1. Capt. John ‘You are the pits’ McEnroe,
2. Charles “don’t know much about Angola, but I know one thing, Angola’s in trouble’ Barkley,
3. ‘Mouth from the South’ John Rocker, recently suspended for his comments about NYC and minorities
4. Hulk Hogan (or anybody from WWF, really)
5. Anthony ‘Melbourne are undeserving champions’ Mundine
6. Shane ‘I quit smoking’ Warne,
7. Don King (or Samuel L. Jackson)
8&9 Peter Sterling and ‘Fatty’ Vautin.
10. Monica Lewinski
Send in your best teams!
Cheers,
Art Neuro
Gee. I used to be a funny guy, five years ago. What happened to me? :)
Five years on and it's amazing to see who is retired:
Steve Waugh, Matt Burke, Dan Marino are done; Fittler's in his last season; and really Jonah Lomu should be(& stay) retired. Penny Hardaway never recaptured that form, so that was a bad call. That leaves Gillie, Mariano Rivera, Ronaldo and Derek Jeter. Of them, Gilchrist's lost a bit of his shine but is still very good, Mariano and DJ are still going strong with their reps intact; and Ronaldo is up and down as he was going into the 2002 World Cup and since.
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