The position battle to come in the Yankee roster is between Melky and Gardner. Seeing that the Yankees didn't go out and score themselves a Centerfielder this off-season, we have to presume they're serious about this battle. It's kind of weird because a position battle for the Yankees CF should be between 2 stars if anything, and here we are comparing 2 players that might not make some other club's 25man rosters.
Let's look at Melky first. I don't know why I have high hopes for Melky. For the last 3 seasons, I've felt he was on the cusp and each season, he's managed to get less productive, rather than more. During that time, he's shown sparks of a player who can put up a .850 OPS, but last year he turned in a career worst .642 OPS.
Here are his projections according to Bill James, CHONE, and Marcel:
- Bill James: .276/.337/.393
- CHONE: .280/.345/.402
- Marcel: .271/.333/.383
Marcel is naturally the most pessimistic on Melky because of the dreadful 2008. I think that dreadful BABIP from last year will average back up to around .300 as all the projections predict. His ISO is about .115 so he's not exactly going to slug over .400 easily. The best thing that could happen to Melky is actually to tighten up his K/BB ratio. either draw a lot more walks or strike out less.
Here are Brett gardner's projections accordingt o BillJames, CHONE and Marcel:
- Bill James:.271/.367/.354
- CHONE: .258/.341/.345
- Marcel: .257/.322/.386
Hmmm. The projected ISO of around .090 on Gardner highlights just how sock-less his bat is going to be. Having said that, the .330 or so BABIP predicted for him seems a little low. I'd venture to say he might have a BABIP of about .340-.350 in which case his average is going to be much higher.
Bill James sees Gardner's BABIP to be about .336, so it is conceivable that if Gardner hits into a better BABIP than that, he might be more of a .290/.370/.380 sort of hitter in the best case scenario. Not very impressive at all.
It's interesting to see that CHONE is highest on Melky and lowest on Gardner, while Bill James is highest on Gardner and not impressed with Melky. I think CHONE's projection of 104 Ks for Gardner is a bit over the top.
In any case, the Yankees are essentially running out 2 players who are about the same as Juan Pierre, another speedy guy in the same mold as Gardner; which is not encouraging at all. Melky at least has had 1 season where he's been more productive than Pierre's average.
Surprisingly, for a much maligned player, Pierre has a good K/B ratio. Neither of these guys have Pierre's eyes. Gardner was showing signs that he was getting it to a good level in AAA last year, but we don't know if that will stick at the major level. Unless either one shows a marked improvement in their strike zone control, the Yankees are going to struggle with the 9 spot in the lineup.
The more I look at this, the more depressed I get.
No comments:
Post a Comment