With the signing, the 5th Starter spot now goes to Andy Pettitte. There really wasn't much discussion around Andy Pettitte this winter, but his RSAR is projected to be about 24.5 according to Replacement Level Yankee Weblog's projection system CAIRO.
Scanning down the CAIRO spreadsheet, Carlos Zambrano is projecting to be about 26.3 runs saved above replacement; Chad Billingsly at 27.9(!); Chien-Ming Wang is 24.1; Mark Buehrle 24.5 and so on. Pettitte projects to be about to 41st best Pitcher in MLB. That's a solid No. 2 on most teams, with Wang not far behind at 43rd. AJ Burnett and Joba are at 20 and 34 respectively, so *if* they're not quite Aces, you get the picture where the Yankees are going to trot out a very good No. 2 starter every outing where they don't send out a dominant Ace in Sabathia.
Just as an aside, Hughes comes in at 11.3 RSAR/ No.141 and Ian Kennedy at No. 158/ 10.1 RSAR. They're solidly No.3 guys on an 'average' team, and they don't make the roster at all.
A quick look at Pettitte projection over at FanGraphs says:
- Bill James: ERA 3.90 192IP
- CHONE: ERA 4.31 167IP
- Marcel: ERA 4.48 183IP
That's not a medicore player. His BABIP has been Yankee-Unlucky, in as much their defense has not been very good, his K/BB is solid. That's a pretty good bargain for $5.5million with incentives. Even with the depressd marlet, it's hard to imagine Mark Buerhle getting that deal in a proper free market, so you have to say the Yankees got an amazing bargain.
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