Alex Gordon Blues Part2

Bobby Murcer? Don't Think So...

I've already purged Alex Gordon from my fantasy leagues. I dreamed for 2 seasons and that was enough. In the previous entry on Alex Gordon, I've mentioned just why I think he's not going to become the next George Brett, and it boils down to a simple thing: he doesn't have Brett's batting eye.

Today, I find this article at Rany on the Royals, where he is talking about Gordon after a season and a half of mediocre performances. It's an interesting article because he goes through and collects bunch of hitters since 1960 that might profile like Gordon and compares them. One of the top two hopeful comparisons on the list happens to be none other than the recently departed Bobby Murcer.

Keep in mind, I’m looking for a player whose trajectory is very similar to Gordon’s; plenty of star players take years to reach their potential. Someone like Nate McLouth, for instance, is having a breakthrough season in his fourth attempt, but he’s a totally different player – a 25th-round pick, an undersized guy who broke into the majors as a fourth outfielder type but never go the chance to play every day until this season. (By the way, why has no one made the comparison of McLouth to Brady Anderson yet? Both are speedy white guys who showed some secondary skills but didn’t hit much as part-time players, McLouth for three years, Anderson for four. Anderson was considered a fluke all the way through his 1992 season, and there are still a lot of people who are waiting for McLouth to turn into a pumpkin this year. Stop waiting, folks – flukes don’t swat 55 extra-base hits in 89 games. The Mighty Mite is for real.)

So I devised a list of players who:

1) had their rookie seasons between 1961 and 2000;
2) were 23 years old as a rookie;
3) batted over 400 times in their rookie season;
4) hit between .240 and .265;
5) had an OBP between .300 and .340;
6) slugged between .360 and .460.

I ended up with a total of 17 players, the most recent of whom being Carlos Febles, of all people. (Carlos the Lesser hit .256/.336/.411 as a rookie, though keep in mind that was at the peak of the Juiced Ball/Bat/Body era.) Let’s split those 17 players into four groups.

Rany's best case comparison list shortens to:

Biggio: .292
Murcer: .287
Gonzalez: .282
Lefebvre: .278
Gant: .277
Brock: .259
Green: .258
Hayes: .251
Kapler: .249
Gordon: .246
Durham: .243
Wright: .242

So picking 2 names off the list - Bobby Murcer and Ray Durham - I took them to fangraphs to have a closer look.
Here's the respective K/BB ratios:

At no point other than the first season at 19 y.o. does Bobby Murcer have as bad a K/BB ratio as Alex Gordon, who has been doing badly in 2 seasons. Ray Durham did worse in his 24y.o. season, but in most part has controlled the strike zone much better.

Here's the straight K% comparison, which is even more stark:

Simply put, the guy strikes out way too much, and hasn't shown signs of improving.
The reason I picked Murcer and Durham was mostly a morbid curiosity. While Murcer is not historically elite, he was an elite player. Durham while not quite elite, has been a very good player. Bottom line, Gordon just does not stack up well against these guys either.

Rany has this to say:

Seven of the 11 players would go on to have stellar careers; two of the 11 went on to be Hall of Famers. Gonzalez hit his stride late in his career – it does the Royals no good if Gordon becomes a perennial All-Star in his 30s – but the other six guys would be named to an All-Star team or finish in the top 10 in MVP voting by their fifth season – all but Hayes by their fourth season. And keep in mind that you could easily lump Larry Walker in with this group, which would increase Gordon's odds to 8 out of 12, or 3 out of 12 for a Hall of Fame career.

I don’t know about you, but I feel a lot better about Gordon than I did when I started this study. Sometimes we get so wrapped up in what a player isn’t doing – in Gordon's case, hitting left-handers – that we overlook what he is doing. Gordon isn’t hitting lefties (.193/.273/.220), but by the same token, he’s hitting right-handed pitching very well (.276/.358/.490). I think batting him third against LHP is nuts – Hillman finally seems to agree – but against RHP, I think batting him third is wholly appropriate. Gordon is striking out at the same rate he did last year, but his walk rate is up almost 50%. When he gets ahold of one, he still hits the ball farther than any Royals hitter from the left side since George Brett.

There you go, a mention of that guy George Brett but that's just not the kind of player I feel is hitting for the Royals. If there was anything to take away from this, I would say that not only is it unlikely that Gordon will be historically elite, he won't be elite and would be lucky to have a Ray Durham-like career - which is not bad in itself - but it sure isn't what the Royals thought they drafted. I just don't buy that Gordon is going to be even as good as Ray Durham. That's my big call.