The Melk Man

The Next Bernie Williams, They Said?

You always have to be a little careful when you pronounce any player the next something or other. For a while back in the last days of the Williams-in-Center era, there was talk that Melky Cabrera would be the next Bernie Williams. Some laughed it off, and many felt that his ill-fated short cup of coffee at Age 21 was a dreadful mistake.

Well, don't look now, but 3 years later Melky Cabrera might be breaking out. After a month, I've decided to look at some interesting indicators. The caveat here is that it is still a small sample for 2008. however, there are telling clues about his .864 OPS.
Here's clue 1:

Melky's K/BB ratio is already in line with the lower end of Bernie's peak years, and he's doing it at a younger age. This means that he already has a very good command of the strike zone. Indeed, he was good even at Age 22, and even when he dipped last year, he was better than league average. That's a valuable player.

Clue No. 2

When he hits the ball into play, he's not been lucky nor unlucky. So his .295 BA is a direct result of his good control at the plate and good contact, not flukey bounces or a succession of bad-fielding at the other end. That graph is indicative that he's not going to fall off his pace easily. Bernie was dogged by injuries in 2000 and 2001, so you can see his diminished speed impacting on his BABIP. Bernie was a faster athlete than Melky, but here's the thing. Melky might have more power.
Check out Clue No.3

His Isolated power is already at the level of some of Bernie Williams' best years. That's not surprising that Melky's on pace for 24 homers for the year. Still, I will re-state the small-sample-caveat once again. The most likely thing here is that Melky's going to regress back towards league average, as that has been his established level// but that is being conservative. I know it's only been a month and anybody can hit anything in a month, but it seems to me it's not the most unsustainable of ISOs, even for a 24y.o. Just a quick scan shows that Pat Burrell, Raul Ibanez, and even Barry Bonds and Reggie Jackson had similar ISOs at 24. As reasonable to good players go, he's actually not hitting something extraordinary.

If Melky does sustain isolated power for the rest of the season, then we can say that he's already good as the great Bernie Williams was in his Age 26 season. He's 2 season ahead of Bernie's career to be reaching such levels. Melky might be on the verge of proving he is much more than a journeyman. We'll see.

People go on about the unconsummated Johan Santana deal, but the fact is, Melky would have gone to the Twins in that deal. Right now I'm doubly happy the Yankees pulled Melky off the table.

UPDATE:
And just like that, the world notices too. Yahoo's fantasy baseball page had a story on him as does the NYT and Newsday.