The Housing Crisis Deepens
Just about everyday, I read an Article in the ABC.net.au about some poor person going through the indignities that go with the housing crisis in this country. Some of these stories are harrowing. Others are disturbing. It's all very crazy in a nation with lots of land but also one of the lowest population densities of anywhere. I'm not saying there should be equal lots of quarter acre blocks all the way out to the and outback, but surely there's something not quite right going on. The gap between ownership of real estate and renting is so vast, it's hard to form a picture of how wide the gulf has become in this disparity. Worse still is the utter lack of control the renting class have over their fates, and this is simply not tenable as a society.
Arguably, all of this is symptomatic not of good government but a succession of bad governments that have simply allowed the problem to fester, grow and metastasise. The problem has become so protracted it not only forms a large chunk of the economy, it's pretty close to being the heart beat of the economy.
Not being able to plan for the future drives down the birthrate, and with the drop in birthrate comes an ageing population. The very inequality we've devised for ourselves in this society is directly going to be the mechanism by which our governments will fail in the near future. How far is this future? In private conversation, I've been told that NSW Treasury sees 2040 as the outer limit for how long the current model of government can last. If we do not change how we run society, we will run out of money in 2040. Apparently, the future forecasts are so bleak on this, there is a palpable sense of panic inside government bureaucracies. The person who told me this also said that the NSW government is pretty good amongst the state governments - meaning the other states are in a more dire trajectory, and may not last until 2040 before revenues collapse.
In the short term the state governments are buoyed by the stamp duty rolling in on the back of the housing bubble. When things normalise, what will become clear is that all of those earnings were temporary and the tax base will collapse with the ageing population. There are all kinds of scenarios leading up to 2040, but they all share a common dystopian feel. That's according to my contact. All this is to say, things are not going to be like they are forever. When the adjustment comes, governments are going to see their revenues dry up. Nobody's really got a good plan for this just now.
Back to the issue of housing. It's kind of strange watching how badly governments are hiding the fact that they are in fact on the side of the landlords and not the renters. The tax breaks that are given to the landlords far outweigh the financial support given to renters. Something like two thirds of the political class own multiple properties, up to and including our current Prime Minister who gets an awful lot of mileage out of the fact that he grew up in dire circumstances. I'm not saying he shouldn't own those properties, but that because he does own those properties, it is harder for him to find the wherewithal to change the status quo. It's no wonder then that the housing crisis just gets worse everyday that goes by. It's no accident, it's actually inevitable.
The Budget Surplus
Speaking of this kind of thing... the current ALP government is a very queer duck. It has been in power for a year and there's no Whitlam-ish zeal for massive spending programmes to bring Australia up to speed with the world. There is no zeal for reforms in the style of the Hawke-Keating ALP governments. There isn't even the kind of energy (and programmatic specificity) once possessed by Kevin Rudd's government. It somehow balanced the budget and delivered a surplus. This was something that was once protected not to take place until later in the decade. The treasurer Jim Chalmers claims we had help from the increased revenue, which all went to the bottom line to alleviate Australia's debts.
This is all very nice, and the bit that is perhaps surprising is that they are selling it as a wonderful thing in a time of inflation, that this budget does not add to the problem because it doesn't open money. As virtues go, that sort of sits with the conservative side of politics, no?
JobSeekers and welfare payments got a little boost but nowhere near what was being sought by the various agencies that report on this topic. It does not concern me, but it does make you wonder why the poor and young would vote or Labor, if Labor aren't going to put a dent in their plight. It's all very mysterious why they couldn't do right by their constituency. I'm sure there's a reason that makes sense in the halls of power down in Canberra, but it does look like a loss of fortitude on the part of the ALP.
No comments:
Post a Comment