The Art Neuro Weblog

I Forgot: A-Rod Hits Homerun Number 400
This is good. Alex Rodriguez became the youngest player to hit 400 homeruns.
ESPN has this little artcile.

On Wednesday night at Miller Park, Alex Rodriguez became the first player in history to hit his 400th home run before the age of 30. Let's try to give you some perspective on what that means.

• That's two years and three months younger than Aaron was when he hit No. 400.
• It's almost two and a half years younger than Willie Mays was when he hit No. 400.
• It's four years and two months younger than Bonds was when he hit No. 400.
• It's four years and seven months younger than Mark McGwire was when he hit No. 400.

Or think about this another way. A-Rod could blow out his knee, or have Tommy John surgery, or find some other reason not to play another game until 2007 – and still have more home runs than any of those guys had at the same age. But since we haven't seen Dr. James Andrews lurking around his locker lately, we're assuming that won't be happening. So as Barry pops his antibiotics and does his knee stretches, Alex Rodriguez just keeps on making those home run trots.

Another 355 of them, and he and Hank can do a MasterCard commercial.
But what are the odds that A-Rod can actually hit another 355 home runs? Even at his young age, they're not as good as you think. For one thing, let's remind you that 355 home runs is a gigantic number of homers. It's more than Boog Powell, Dick Allen, Darryl Strawberry, George Brett, Dave Parker and about 400,000 other men hit in their whole careers, as a matter of fact.

And the other thing we all need to remind ourselves – always – is that we have no idea (NONE!) how many seasons, how many at-bats, how many opportunities Alex Rodriguez will get, over the rest of his career, to break that record
Maybe he'll keep cranking out big home run years into his late 30s and early 40s, ike Aaron and Bonds. But the odds say he won't.

Blah Blah Blah.
My first gut-reaction? I lived to see Hank Aaron break Babe Ruth's record as a kd. I lived to see Sadaharu Oh reach 756 across the Pacific Pond; and the go on to hit 868. I'm inclined to say that I'll see A-Rod beat Aaron's number, and that his record whatever it may end up will get eclipsed once more in my lifetime. It's the nature of counting stats played across careers. It's certainly unlike a seasonal counting stat like 61 homeruns and 56-game-hitting streaks. Oh right. 70, 73. We're counting McGwire and Bonds are we? Shame.

In the mean time, I'm pretty happy and appreciative that A-Rod swings the lumber for the Yankees at the prime years of his career.

- Art Neuro