The Art Neuro Weblog

War is Policy Continued by Other Means

The siege of Fallujah has been lifted without the completion of any of the objectives that were set for the operation of the outset. All the articles I have read have been vague about exactly what is going on there, but it looks like the militia still run the town. Certainly, those responsible for the infamous killing and mutilation of the four mercenaries have not been brought to justice. I think it looks a lot like a defeat.

It seems that the US has reached the limit of it's ability to achieve it's aims in Iraq through violence. It's going to be interesting to see what they do next. They might try again with more troops, if they can get more troops. They will continue trying to raise a proxy army and government, but each blunder they have made has weakened the Iraqi Governing Council. They may decide just to continue with the war of attrition until the oil runs out in 10-20 years time, who knows.

I'm sure that an Iraqi version of the Phoenix Program (a large scale policy of assassination adopted in the later years of Vietnam) is well under way, but the resistance is way ahead of them in the intelligence war and unless they can turn that around, covert ops aren't going to work. The attempt to improve intelligence gathering through torture has been the most counter productive action that has been taken so far, and "those" photos could potentially form part of the groundwork for an ultimate defeat. We shall see.

I think the main problem with the US' tactics is that they have learned from the Israelis. The Israeli use of military force against the Palestinians has been one of the most unsuccessful counter insurgency campaigns in history. I notice the US army seems to have stopped it's policy of demolishing houses, maybe that's because they've learned from their mistakes. Of course, the most likely explanation is that the demolitions are no longer being reported.

I read that 10% of the Iraqi unit that was sent to Fallujah actually changed sides. I've also noticed that the Mehdi militia (loyal to As Sadr) is displaying a level of sophistication that was not present in the pre-2003 Iraqi army. I think that the training that the US has given to the new Iraqi army has percolated down to the resistance. If the resistance can get hold of some modern anti tank and anti aircraft weapons, they could militarily defeat the US army.

I think this is the worst-managed military campaign in American history, and you've got to wonder what went on behind the scenes to make it happen. Wars waged on false pretences are an American tradition, but they usually choose victims they can beat (Vietnam being the obvious exception). Were they smoking crack? Is an ignominious defeat actually part of some greater plan? And will we ever know?

James