This election certainly is tight. It's probably as tight as the 2010 contest which saw the Hung Parliament. There's a swing calculator on this SMH article which is worth playing around.
Stirton notes further, on the state data, that Labor could pick up 16 seats, getting it to 73 - just three short of a majority and ensuring a hung Parliament.
Seat-by-seat, Turnbull may be ahead. But when Labor won the unwinnable in Queensland, some pointed back to polls asking why they'd been ignored. Good question.The uniform swing needed to put the ALP back into government is 4.5%. At 4%, which is where the polls are now sitting, it gives rise to a result of 73 seats each for the ALP and Coalition respectively with 4 seats in the cross bench, just like in 2010. Both parties have disavowed forming a minority Government, and in the case of the ALP, you can fully understand why bad on their experience. As for the Coalition's disavowal, one is struck by the oddness of the luxury provided to them through being the incumbent, and how they will likely retain the role of caretaker government.
All of this goes to show the rearguard action of fighting the 2013 election with a a restored Kevin Rudd was in fact, the correct move if only to "save the furniture" as they said at the time. The furniture saved in 2013 is roaring back after only 1 term of the Coalition Government which was a truly shambolic, pathetic, idiotic government if there ever was one.
The bigger question mark is if the demographic has changed somewhat since 2010. It's been 6 years of lots of people dying and presumably those deaths would have - excuse the word - 'favoured' the older voters siding with the Coalition. It is eminently possible that the polls are under-reporting the sea change in the demographics and that maybe the ALP has more support than shows up in polling.
The Never-Ending Campaign In The USA
Goodness, if you thought this current election unleashed by Malcolm Turnbull was seemingly without end, then the 18month epic preselection and then election process of the US Presidential elections is just interminable. At this point in time, Hillary Clinton is claiming she has enough votes to win the Democratic nomination, although this point is contested by Bernie Sanders' camp because those 'Super Delegates' don't get to vote until the 25th of July - which is a whole month and a bit more away from this writing.
I'll be honest, I think Bernie's been licked, but I refuse to piss my pants; and thus I say to anybody who listens, let's see how this plays out. As they say, a week is a long time in politics. There are four and a half of those "long times" between now and when the Super Delegates decide who will be their nominee. There are already disturbing revelations being thrown out to the media about Hillary Clinton, thanks to Wikileaks.
Yeah. That right there is Hillary Clinton recommending Regime change in Syria. What's coming out of this is the notion that Trump might be scary because he's a bigoted xenophobe with little tolerance for anything that requires nuanced thinking; Hillary Clinton is just as scary being a hawk of unrivalled dedication to toppling Middle Eastern regimes just to 'protect' Israel. You'd think that maybe the Super Delegates might want to ponder if they want to line up behind a President who is going to go to more wars to 'protect' Israel.
In other news, Trump's campaign might be running out of money.
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