What do you make of this result? If a month ago the notion of the United Kingdom leaving the European Union seemed like a non-issue, it all of a sudden heated up today as the polls closed an lo and behold the UK had voted to exit the EU. It's a staggering result that flies in the face oft only the rhetoric or accepted wisdom or common sense. Nigel Farage went from being a joke and a potential footnote in history to being the face of the man who rallied petty nationalism and jingoism to reverse the historic decision for the UK to join the EC in the first place.
Pollsters are looking really bad out of all this. Not only did they screw up the last election, they totally misread the public mood for this referendum. Also looking bad is David Cameron who called on the referendum and pitched for the 'remain' camp. In fact the majority of the British Parliament would support remaining in the EU so it will be curious to see how that respond to the outcome.
The vote result has caused chaos across global markets including the ASX where $50billion was wiped off the bourse today. That's like a regular day during the GFC for losses but still, you get the feeling that people are taking money out of markets just to feel like they're doing something. Also in the news today was the collapse of the Pound Sterling which has sunk to levels not seen since 1985.
All that being said, I did get a more nuanced whiff of just what was ailing the common voter in England, who were keen to tell me on Facebook just how much the rule of Brussels rankled with them, as well as just how much of a strain Europeans were putting on the NHS. If the British were going to protect the NHS, they had to - they argued - quit on the EU. There were other issues as well, such as just who these people in Brussels were to be making such sweeping laws ("un-eleced filth!") that supersede national sovereign laws of a land, and how such laws were handing over fishing right in waters around the UK to landlocked countries like Hungary.
Really, it wasn't really to do with the xenophobic impulses as claimed by the campaigners to remain. It had a lot more to do with the fact that Westminster had been relegated to rubber-stamping laws created in Brussels, and that those laws were not working at all in the British context. Europe will rightly be smarting from this result. The ramifications are multiple and here are a few that I can think of just off the top of my head:
- Scotland will want to have a do-over of their secession referendum. Scotland wants to remain in the EU.
- Presumably Norther Ireland wants to stay in the EU. Otherwise it has to organise borders with Ireland. If Scotland and Northern Ireland split, the Brexit would have brought about the end of the Unite Kingdom. Not sure how the Queen deals with this as she's still Queen unto the Scots but it brings those old hoary questions back into the limelight.
- Can the City of London stay the financial hub of Europe when it no longer is in Europe and will presumably have trade barriers with Europe? Will the British economy recede from its current model of being built around finance, insurance and real estate banking?
- Grexit is firmly back on the agenda. If the UK can exit the EU, then Greece will see that they can force the issue to get out. This would be sensible except... here come another round of Grexit-Fear market gyrations
- What trade deals now and how? When the UK is out, what kind of barriers to trade will there be with Europe? One imagines these will be high, just to punish the UK for leaving. In fact Brexit means the UK has opted to go with less leverage when it needs to negotiate more.
- David Cameron must be done as Prime Minister. I can't imagine he survives the week now that he's spent his political capital and it all went up in flames. Could the next PM be *gasp* Boris Johnson? What kind of world are we living in when ugly populists like the Johnsons and Farages of the world win and ... heck why not mention it, Donald Trump is a nominee to be a presidential candidate for the Republicans?
Apart from the bit where David Cameron loses his job, a lot of that is actually quite difficult to digest. In any case, it's an historic day indeed.
It's kind of funny to reflect back on the moment the UK joined the EEC way back in 1972. France made it conditional that the UK ditch its favourable trade arrangements with her former colonies, and so Australia and New Zealand were - for a better word - 'dumped' by the Mother Country. Australia's modern identity really emerges from that historic moment when the Mother Country jumped into a bed with the French and the Germans and abandoned her children to make their own way in the world. The massive shift towards Australia's engagement with Asia which started in the mid-70s directly follows on from that rather uneasy historic moment. For the most part Australia has done okay out of that change. It forced the country to grow up quite a bit, become more cosmopolitan and less parochial, and maybe even a little more sophisticated in its dealings with the old dart.
That being said, should the UK start renegotiating all its trade deals and come knocking in Australia, and should there be an ALP government around, the UK would best be reminded of this history, and perhaps even be asked whether they would like to revisit 'Terra Nullius' in their Parliament - perhaps even offer an apology to the indigenous peoples of Australia and New Zealand. There's a lot of unfinished business to be discussed.
UPDATE: "And he's gone! David Cameron, gone for a duck...as he trudges away from the crease. Took a big swiping shot and skied the ball. Not a very good captain's knock..."
No comments:
Post a Comment