Just what should the Yankees trade for the best pitcher in Baseball?Right now, they're thinking Phil Hughes + Melky Cabrera and a B Prospect. Amazingly, the Twins want another A Prospect.
I really can't stomach the thought of parting with Phil Hughes after all this time. Here's what the Yankees are paying:
5 years of Hughes at low cost.
4 years of Melky Cabrera as League Average CF at low cost
6 years of somebody doing similar to Hughes (let's say Alan Horne).
For:
Santana for 1 year at 12million or so. Then, 6 years at $20m/yr.
Santana at 3.00 ERA and 200IP for those years.
Not that it's the best method, but it's handily available on THT so.. Win Shares says: Santana is consistently about a 25-27WS player.
Melky is about a 13WS player right now with some upside.
If we conservatively said Hughes is about as good as Scott Kazmir(to just pull a name of a good, young pitcher out of a hat), then he is roughly about a 15WS player plus the upside.
Just eyeballing that, I think what the Twins lose on having Hughes is easily made up with Melky. that is to say, stats alone says Hughes + Melky = Johann in value.
So really, it's daft that the Twins even want another player on top of Hughes and Melky.
This assumes Hughes becomes nothing more than a 100ERA+ kind of pitcher and there's no significant change to Melky's level of performance. If they get any better than that, the Twins totally win this trade.
If the Bosox are offering Lester and Ellsbury, I'd say let them have Santana. 2008 will be tough, but I like my chances of a Joba-Hughes-IPK troika against Beckett-Santana-and-Matsuzaka, even in a play-off series.
Andy Pettitte is Coming Back
Andy is coming back for one more year.
“Calls and requests for him to return from Brian Cashman, Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, Joe Girardi, among others, influenced him, as did an outpouring of requests from Yankees fans,” Hendricks said, after the news was first reported by the Houston Chronicle.So there goes a bit of leverage for the Twins to milk the Yanks.
UPDATE:
The Yankees are out of the hunt according to Hank Steinbrenner.
General Manager Brian Cashman would not comment on the breakdown of the Santana talks, but he said: “We’ve worked hard to get guys to a certain point where we’re ready to grow with them, and hopefully, we can. It doesn’t mean we’re not going to move them at some point, but at this stage, I’m happy to say that we’re holding onto guys.”Wise move. The wisdom of even a straight-up Hughs+Melky for Santana was questionable before money issues even came up and the Twins did want more on top. Pettitte coming back really makes the difference. Here's another take:
Hughes, 21, went 5-3 in 13 starts last season, and added a victory in the playoffs. This was the first time he had been involved in specific trade rumors.
“It’s been sort of tough the last week not really knowing what’s going on,” Hughes said via e-mail. “Obviously things can still happen, but I’m very happy to still be a Yankee.”
The Twins privately acknowledged that Cashman had not informed them that the Yankees had pulled out. But Steinbrenner is the final authority, and Cashman has never seemed overly enthusiastic about parting with young talent, either.
That leaves the Boston Red Sox as the clear favorites to land Santana if the Twins trade him.
The Red Sox are offering varying packages centered on center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury or starter Jon Lester. Steinbrenner said he was not fazed by the prospect of Boston’s adding an established ace like Santana to a rotation of Josh Beckett, Curt Schilling, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Clay Buchholz.
Steinbrenner added that keeping up with the Red Sox was not enough of a reason to strip the Yankees’ farm system.
“Maybe Boston isn’t at that point, because they obviously worry about what we do, and I don’t blame them,” Steinbrenner said. “Of course we’re always concerned about them, but at the same time, I can’t let that affect what we do. I can’t help what Boston does and what Minnesota does.”
Steinbrenner said “there were a lot of factors involved, including money” to explain why the Yankees dropped their pursuit of Santana. The Yankees already have the majors’ highest payroll, and Santana probably would have cost at least $20 million a year. Already this off-season, the Yankees have reached agreements to re-sign Pettitte, Alex Rodriguez, Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera, who will make more than $70 million combined next season. With Pettitte back, adding Santana was less appealing, considering the cost in players and money.
Yeah. Amen to that. I'm hoping the Yankees do enter Spring with the Hughes, Joba and IPK troika. This news gives me much joy. If Boston end up with Santana, so be it. I'm sure Bosox are in for a rude shock if they give up Ellsbury and still have to face the above rotation.
- Andy Pettitte, 215 innings, 4.05 ERA
- Chien-Ming Wang, 220 innings, 3.70 ERA
- Phil Hughes, 160 innings, 3.60 ERA (Yankees give him some extra time off to strengthen)
- Joba Chamberlain, 160 innings, 3.60 ERA (see Phil)
- Ian Kennedy, 190 innings, 4.20 ERA
Six average-or-better pitchers. No one has a ridiculous season. Wang and Pettitte repeat 2007. This is a perfectly respectable World Series caliber rotation, especially given our lineup. Interestingly, this made me realize that Ian Kennedy is a lot more valuable in the short-term than I thought because his arm will be ready to pitch a full workload next season, while Joba and Phil may not be.
- Mike Mussina, 100 innings, 4.50 ERA (takes some starts from Phil and Joba)
Why do we have to ruin a good thing?
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