This is seriously great.
David Pinto has been working on his probablistic range model of analysing players' and team defense for some time now. He's been showing numbers at the Think Factory without convincing me of much that he's got something going. Well this does just that.
What I've done is broken the data down by ball in play type (grounders, flys and liners). Each chart below has the direction of the ball on the X-Axis. The Y-Axis represents the probability of turning those balls into outs. Eckstein's actual probability is compared to the predicted probability. For reference, a vector of -4 (minus 4) represents the thirdbase line, and 8 represents straight away centerfield. Here's Eckstein on grounders in 2004 (click on graphs for a larger image):
Then he goes into his various charts for grounders, flyballs and liners. It's great. If nothing else you can take a glance and see what a player's expected values are and how the actual performances deviate from those figures. It's fascinating and dare I say a breakthrough in visualising the defense numbers people have been working on for sometime, but also working from publicly available numbers.
- Art Neuro
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