Syria worries me. The Assad regime in Syria is a brutal dictatorship, of which there is no doubt or disputing. In our contemporary western sensibilities, we would like for Bashar Assad to leave the stage of politics and give up his reign as President. Yet, if there is anything that is just as clear about these Arab states is that when you remove the patriarchal secular dictator, the power vacuum left by their death invites all manners of sectarian crazies with even more violent mentation. Removing Gaddafi, Mubarak and even Saddam Hussein has not brought the light of democracy to these countries as hoped by democratic nations of this world.
What has emerged is the uncomfortable truth that democracy is possibly unworkable in the middle east, and that nobody counted on this likelihood at all. In one sense it is arguable whether we in the west are doing democracy all that well anyway; but it is also arguable as to whether democracy really does deliver the kinds of results its stated goals indicate. We think democracy is a pretty good thing - warts and all - because it fits into our cultural context and historic inheritance and reinforces our social values through its operation. It ignores the possibility that fundamental pillars of a working democracy like separation of church and state (or any religion for that matter) or separation of powers - especially the independence of courts from the executive, and for that matter women getting a vote; these things might all be an anathema in the middle east where there is simply no equivalent cultural or historic reason that would lead them to such positions.
Naturally the phenomenon of voting in extremists into government has taken place in Palestine, Iraq, and Egypt tells you quite a bit about the people doing the voting. In a kind of circular logic, the desire for extremism brings about the military junta to clamp down for peace, and that's what you had in Iraq and Egypt. It also doesn't say a lot for Yasser Arafat's tenure as PLO leader that the voters, once they were given a vote, wanted even more extreme action than a former terrorist.
All of this is a long-winded way of saying, removing Bashar Assad is no promise for better times or more peace and prosperity in Syria. If the cultural context has anything to tell us, it tells us that the alternatives to Assad are likely much worse than the secular, suit-wearing, beardless, Oxford educated Assad. Any discussion about Peace in Syria can't skirt this problem, although the rhetoric the west puts it on fairly decisive grounds that they want Assad gone.
As it turns out, Putin is dead set on keeping Assad exactly in place, in power and has somehow recruited the Iranians and the Chinese to this cause, while the USA and NATO forces attempt to supply the rebels who are not ISIS. Putin is hammering anybody and everybody who is opposed to Assad inside Syria, which means the mostly group of rebels funded by the USA are getting hit as well as ISIS positions. They're arguing about it but it's not going to present a solution for what happens after Assad is removed.
However this thing is meant to turn out, it's looking like it will be a long time before we get a picture of the endgame to this civil war in Syria - and that assumes it's not going to spread.
Putin In The Boot
One imagines Vladimir Putin must be laughing. Xi Jing-Ping probably is laughing too, but we'll go with Vlad first. Putin, in his second incarnation as Russian President has been rather like a 19th century colonialist. The incursion in to Ukraine to regain Crimea is nothing short of an imperialist land grab; his response to the mistaken shooting of MH17 has been nothing short of brazen; and Syria is offering him another opportunity to press his advantage through power projection and confrontational diplomacy against the west. In short, he's a ratbag, and he's not even our ratbag. He's just this ratbag out there behaving like the political clock stopped in 1914.
Like some parody of the boorish Russian peasant, Putin seems impervious to the opprobrium and contempt heaped upon him for his actions. He simply doesn't give a shit what we think of him - and rightly so, he is the strong and we are the weak. Behold his mighty bold moves to restore military prestige to Russia. No, it's truly impressive if it weren't like some timewarp joke.
Sarcasm aside, Putin has managed to get a port and base in Syria out of all this chaos and he even managed to wrangle an airbase out of Iraq to stage his version of anti-ISIS action. It is as if the world is playing 'Stratego' while he is playing 'Steel Fury Kharkov 1942'. One imagines the Russian forces do not have rules of engagement or any respect for human rights or international law. The only reason they're not rogue is because they sit on the UN Security Council. It's nuts, but there we have it.
In stark contrast, what have we got? Our unwillingness to jump into World War III, boots and all. Really, can you blame us for that? It's remarkable how we've ended up in this situation.
Air China Delivery
Somewhere in the media is a report that tells us China has sent war planes to operate in Syria, helping the Russians. They're trying out their new Aircraft carrier and J-15 fighter bombers. I don't know about you but this is all strangely reminiscent of Hitler sending his Stuka squadrons to the Spanish Civil war in 1935. When you're blatantly dress-rehearsing your fledgling carrier and war planes on a nation in civil war, (a country with which you have had very little historic contact, to boot), there's really no moral or ethical defence is there?
I am reminded the 'Guernica' by Picasso. I'm also reminded of the apocryphal story about the Nazis who visited him in Paris and on seeing the 'Guernica', asked him " did you do this?"; to which Picasso replied, "no, you did".
The thing that scares me is that these wildcat proxy wars and testing out troops and equipment is somehow going to turn into a full-blown World War III. It's highly likely if everybody sticks to their best senses but you just don't know with the Vladimir Putins and Xi Jing-Pings of this world.
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