Trudeau Wins In Canada

Canada's Generation Jump

And just like that Canada elected Justin Trudeau as their new Prime Minister, ousting longtime Conservative Stephen Harper. One does not want to comment too much about the people other people's nations elect but if there is one thing to be said about Stephen Harper is that his brand of conservatism enabled the likes of Tony Abbott to continue being a climate change denier head of government. Harper's Canada and Abbott's Australia were substantial holdouts in making any meaningful commitments towards curbing emissions or moving away from mining fossil fuels as the mainstay of exports in their respective countries.

Interestingly enough, Australia's Liberal Party ousted Tony Abbott to get some credibility back, and in so doing the right wing climate-change-denying end of politics in Australia has had to beat a retreat from the controls. It's probably not coincidence that Stephen Harper simply ran out of time, options and good grace as a new leader took control and won the election. There is something of Kevin Rudd who came to power after a long Howard Government, in Justin Trudeau's victory. Given that Canada has a Westminster system just like we do, whether we will see ructions developing as they have over here in Australia. It is quite possible that the long Harper Government has kept a handbrake on change for a long time, but now things are about to go into flux.

It's certainly hard to read the lay of the land in Canadian politics because there are 3 parties to the left of the Liberals including something called the New Democratic Party; they also have a Green Party; and they have a Québécois Party that caters to francophones; but only the Conservatives to the right. In the 2011 election the Liberals were decimated but now they've taken a solid chunk out of the middle ground, so much so they have a majority in their own right.

The even more notable thing is that Mr. Trudeau is a strapping 43 years old. Yes, he is Generation X, which doesn't mean anything about his potential competence as ahead of government; but it is remarkable in that Canada got there second in the anglophone nations (David Cameron was born in 1966, he is the first). You wouldn't have thought it was possible even 6 months ago. Just as the youth vote swung hard behind Kevin Rudd in 2007, one imagines the youth vote made a meaningful impact in installing a young leader.

It's doubly remarkable because it appears the Baby Boomers aren't going away in the upcoming US election - none of the Republican Gen-X candidates have a shred of appeal or credibility so far, leaving the leaders as Clinton, Sanders on the left and Donald Trump on the right; All 3 a bunch of old Baby Boomers. It's going to be a while yet before a Gen-X-er sits as President in the White House. Australia too has had a choppy few years of Prime Ministerial change but it appears to have been a musical chairs audition amongst Baby Boomers in Rudd, Gillard, Abbott and now Turnbull. As I've said before, if Turnbull is successful and stays a while, a Gen-X PM is going to have to wait in the wings indefinitely.

The point is, Trudeau has possibly arrived at his political destination a little early in history. Stephen Harper is roughly a contemporary of Barack Obama and Julia Gillard. 12 years younger, Justin Trudeau is a contemporary of Winona Ryder, Ricky Martin and Sacha Baron Cohen. It's a big jump. How can Canada's Baby Boomers handle this sudden jump? Or are they less conservative than their counterparts in America and Australia and the UK? It's hard to imagine, but it might even be the case.

So it is with that in view I'm going to make a fearless prediction and say Canada's polity will necessarily be infected by the Australian disease and start chopping and changing leaders as polls go south. Trudeau will be fine for a while until he is forced to break one of his big promises. His poll will sink, his backbench will get restless, and voila! Chop-and-Change time will manifest itself. Some Baby Boomer is going to try and reclaim their moment in history.

Really, it's not just about the hair.