Quick Shots - 31/Dec/2014

Are We Headed To Zero Interest Rate Policy?

I wonder when Australia's RBA would be forced to run a ZIRP of its own. To date, the RBA has been trying to jawbone the AUD down and it has lost around 15% this year since its peak at US$0.95. That being said 70% of the money in the Australian equities comes from overseas, and you'd have to think that was in pursuit of yield. This is helping our blue-chip stocks keep very high valuations as they pay out their dividends, but it is also showing up as the property bubble. Simply put, the very quantity of foreign investment sloshing around in our markets is not reflective of how exactly our country is going.

Still, with commodity prices collapsing and national revenue dwindling, it's worth asking how exactly this government sees Australia in the years to come. One has the suspicion that perhaps there hasn't been much thought put in to this question by our current government, moreover this is not the kind government to consider these kinds of problems as problems. Just listen to Joe Hockey - he thinks growth would be a good thing to strive for, for the G20 nations. Who would'a thunk that?

Let's say for the moment that what we've been witnessing as the new reality, post GFC - where growth is anaemic and debt is crippling in the developed world - is indeed the way things will continue as a general economic setting, then it would seem Australia will inevitably have to cut rates to match the Zero Interest Rate regimen that is currently in place in the USA and Japan. With the recovery under way, the USA might raise interest rates in 2015, but this might be a kind of idle speculation in as mutes nobodies certain the recovery under way really is meaningful.

If the USA can't raise rates and Japan can't raise rates, and the Euro zone running extremely low rates, there's an argument to be made whether it is feasible for Australia to have interest rates that are significantly higher. The drop in the AUD means the international investors are pricing in the likely drop in interest rates to come. If the Australian economy keeps losing momentum, it won't be long before there will be a recession here before there is a rate rise over in the USA. Naturally the RBA will cut rates and we will be closer in line with ZIRP nations.

What nobody seems to have figured out is how to actually get out of ZIRP. As it is we're being sucked down the drain towards ZIRP. We maybe talking about a very different kind of economy in only a matter of years from now.

And now for some short movie crits...

'Expendables 3'

If the second one was getting long in the tooth, the third one is a bit like the current New York Yankees roster: filled with aged veterans who were great a long time ago, and a bunch of kids we know nothing about just yet. The ageing stars include Sly, Mel, Arnie, Harrison, Jet, Dolph, Terry, Wesley and Antonio. In their heyday a movie like this would have cost $200million above the line just to assemble the line up, but because they're all far from and on the wrong end of heir peak fame they can be picked for a song.

Mel as the bad guy is fun and gets the best lines and because he's the most proper actor amongst this bunch, he makes it look the most like he means his lines. Everybody else is just phoning in their  schtick. The Wesley Snipes quip about being in prison for Tax Evasion; Arnie's line about not really having retired; Harrison Ford's quip that Bruce Willis is "not in the picture" and so on makes the script like a parody of a parody of a parody. There's a lot of eye-ball rolling when you watch this film. I can't believe it was so long ago tat Jet Li kicked Mel's ass in 'Lethal Weapon IV'. This time it's Sylvester ... and Mel's stunt double has a good bit of Kung Fu left in him, but it's mostly pantomime-for-the-punters. Oh how the mighty have fallen. We grow old, we grow old, the universe indeed ends with a whimper.

They will probably make more of these. If they do I'll probably keep watching them. I really don't know why. I hope the new Terminator movie kicks ass next year.

'Chef'

Jon Favreau plays a chef who regains his self respect. It's the actors in the cameo roles that make this one amazing: Scarlet Johansson as the sommelier; Sophia Vergara as the ex-wife; Robert Downey Jr. as the ex-husband of the ex-wife; and Dustin Hoffman makes an appearance as the restauranteur. It's weird casting.
Seems to me, if you looked like Jon Favreau and your ex-wife was Sophia Vergara, you'd commit suicide because it is indeed the end of your life. You wouldn't be doing this stuff in this movie.

The film gets a pretty good rating on rotten tomatoes but it's hard to argue the film is anything more than feel good fluff.

'The Boiler Room'

A true blast from the past which I missed way back when. Maybe was good that I did.
I hadn't watched this when it first came out because it seemed a bit staid, but it's based on the story of one of the guys who worked for the Wolf of Wall Street, Jordan Belfort. Its shooting style and look have dated a bit but it's a great companion piece to 'The Wolf of Wall Street'. The stand out scene might be the scene where all the 'traders' (its hard to call people pushing penny-stocks 'traders' but yes) can recite the lines from 'Wall Street' as they watch it.

Because the film is couched as a morality tale the film is far less charming than the picaresque of 'The Wolf of Wall Street'. That being said, it has a certain angle of realism that sheds light on what kind of idiot went and worked for Jordan Belfort. Vin Diesel is also in this film, who is amongst other things, playing a guy with hair.

Ben Affleck is also in it as a kind guy like Alec Baldwin's sales boss in 'Glengarry Glen Ross'. During his big speech, his character of course promptly invokes Alec Baldwin and his character in 'Glenngary Glen Ross' which illustrates the very low artistic ambitions of this film.
"Do you know the bad guy from that film? I'm him!"
Yeah, we get it, we get it.