Yankees Update - 08/08/09

Putting The Foot Down

After going 9-1 on the homestand, the Yankees hit the road. They took 2 of 3 in Tampa Bay, but dropped 3 in a row against the White Sox before winning the last game in a 4-game set. Then, they won 2 in Toronto, thus going 5-4 on the road before coming back to face the Red Sox for a 4 game set.The Red Sox lost 2 of 3 in Tampa Bay coming into New York, which was very nice of them because it resulted in keeping the game difference at 2.5, just as it was when the Yankees hit the road. .

The Yankees then won 3 straight; one in a display of offense, one in a 0-0 15 inning game where A-Rod hit a walk-off in the bottom  of the 15th (he's a true Yankee now LOL); and a 5-0 shutout behind CC Sabathia. Andy Pettitte faces Jon Lester tomorrow, but by wining 3 out of 4 in this series, the Yankees have taken their ply-off probability to 94.2% according to the RLYW.

...here’s a look at how things stand. Yankees: 65-42, 58.7% Div, 29.4% WC, 88.1% PL (chances at winning division, wild card, and making playoffs respectively)
Red Sox: 62-44, 36.7% Div, 41.4% WC, 78.1% PL

So let’s run through the possible outcomes:

Red Sox sweep
Yankees: 65-46, 31.4% Div, 45.4% WC, 76.8% PL
Red Sox: 66-44, 62.1% Div, 28.0% WC, 90.0% PL
Me breaking lots of stuff.

Red Sox take three of four
Yankees: 66-45, 43.4% Div, 42.5% WC, 85.9% PL
Red Sox: 65-45, 50.2% Div, 38.1% WC, 88.4% PL
Me breaking a fair amount of stuff.

Red Sox and Yankees split four
Yankees: 67-44, 60.7% Div, 30.3% WC, 91.0% PL
Red Sox: 64-46, 33.6% Div, 48.1% WC, 81.6% PL
Me breaking a thing or two.

Yankees take three of four
Yankees: 68-43, 69.4% Div, 24.8% WC, 94.2% PL
Red Sox: 63-47, 25.5% Div, 51.4% WC, 76.9% PL
Me slightly happy.

Yankees sweep
Yankees: 69-42, 80.2% Div, 15.9% WC, 96.1% PL
Red Sox: 62-48, 15.6% Div, 53.4% WC, 69.0% PL

That's very nice.  So, the Yankees are now 5.5 games ahead of the Red Sox, with a 69.4% chance of winning the Division.That's a very big swing considering if the Red Sox swept this series, the Yankees' odds would have been whittled down to 31.4%. If the Yankees win tomorrow, they will be at 80.2% likely to win the Division. All this goes to show this series is perhaps the decider of the Division.

The Trades And Pickups

The Yankees made some very subtle moves this year. There was no big Bobby Abreu and Cory Lidle trade; no David Justice kind of deal; most certainly not Roy Halladay on a silver platter. Instead they got Jerry Hairston Jr. who is a very talented utility player and they picked up Chad Gaudin off the waiver wire.

Back in the day before Robbie Cano hit the scene, the Orioles had Jerry Hairston Jr and Brian Roberts to choose as their future 2B and they chose the latter. You could see why, and it has subsequently been shown to have been the right choice.



That's not to say Hairston Jr. is too far behind Roberts in value. He plays 6 positions, with 3B being the weakest. He's a nice complement to Eric Hinske and makes the bench that much deeper - and lends the outmatched Cody Ransom to be DFA'd. Thank goodness for that.

Gaudin is a different story. Gaudin has been kicking around the MLB for 7 seasons, starting out with the Rays. In 3 out of 7 of those seasons, he's been on the unlucky side of BABIP, including this year. The curve pretty much shadows his career ERA. He was an extreme Groundballer in '07 and this year, but he's also been above average with the HR/9 stat as well.

His problem is that he walks too many guys but his K/BB ratio sits at about league average this year. He's most certainly an interesting choice coming out of the pen for a couple innings, but you wouldn't want to give him starts.

David Ortiz' Excuse

Ortiz said his vitamins were contaminated and he never knowingly took steroids.

Weak.

UPDATE (on an Update):
And a sweep of the Red Sox essentially puts the Yankees in the drver's seat for the Division. This is good. The RLYW reports that the play off odds update is now:

Instant Playoff Odds Update
Yankees: 90.1% Div, 8.4% WC, 98.5% PL
Red Sox: 7.8% Div, 57.2% WC, 65.0% PL

I think this is the best Yankee squad since 2003. While it's not a clinch, they've sewn up the division 9/10ths of the way and including the unlikely slide back to 2nd, they are going to the play-offs with a 98.5% probability at this point.

That's huge. Of all the outcomes going into this series, a massacre-sweep of this magnitude against a team that has worn the best team in baseball moniker for the first 3 months of the season, is just fantastic.

Hey, this sweep was so good my mother called me up to tell me. :)