David Dale regales us with his three laws of Cinematics:
The First Law of Cinematics: To predict the success of a big budget movie in Australia, multiply its first week's takings by three. The nation's favourite flick this year, The Dark Knight, made $15.9 million in its first week, and ended up with a total of $45.6 million (putting it close to the all-time chart-toppers Titanic with $58m, Shrek 2 with $50m and Return of the King with $49m). TDK sold more than 4 million tickets because it lived up to its hype, just like Kung Fu Panda, which earned $8.3 million in the first week and went on to total $26 million, or Wall-E (from $5.8m to $17.8m).
There were exceptions to the first law this year. Mamma Mia! went from $8.1m to an amazing $31.5m and Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull went from $12.3m to a mere $29.5m. They are covered by ...
The Second Law of Cinematics: To tell if a movie will stay hot, examine the dropoff in its second week's takings. If it falls by more than a third, word of mouth must be bad (and the ultimate total, as with Indy, will be less than three times the first week). If it falls by less than a third, w.o.m. will propel it to glorious heights (as with Mamma Mia!). It's ominous news for the teen vampire flick Twilight that its second weekend box office was down 54 per cent on its first weekend.
Now here's a spooky detail: the takings of Australia fell by 33 per cent from week 1 to week 2, and by 32 per cent from week 2 to week 3.
There is thus no way to tell if it will top the $29 million earned by Baz Luhrmann's last epic, Moulin Rouge. We might seek a clue in ...
The Third Law of Cinematics: Australian films never make more than $3 million (Happy Feet and Australia don't count because they are international movies). To put it another way, there are only 300,000 cinemagoers in this country who regard the term "Australian-made" as an incentive.
The most awarded local flick this year was The Black Balloon. It made $2.1 million. The most awarded local flick last year was Romulus My Father, which made $2.6 million. Some people theorise that Australian movies fail because they lack budgets. There may be another issue. Could it be that they fail because they lack story?
Need we say more?
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