The Art Neuro Weblog

Smoke Over Iraq

Well, the situation in Iraq just keeps getting more interesting. Last week I seriously thought it was the beginning of the end for the US in Iraq. If they crush the recent insurrection, an even bigger one will occur in a couple of months, and the cycle will continue until the whole country is at war. That hasn't happened yet. Maybe the US has decided to go for a political solution, maybe they aren't yet ready to move to crush the insurrection yet, we don't really know. Apparently the US bases in the north are facing serious disruptions to their supply lines:

http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?click_id=123&art_id=qw1082378340532B262&set_id=1

The US certainly has the capability to crush the revolt. The rebels have no answer to the US firepower, and if the US decides to use it, the revolt will be crushed (significant US casualties will ensue, but they will win in the end). Following this course introduces the risk of actually increasing the intensity of the war by alienating the Iraqi people.

Possibly the most important factor is that the more Iraqis they kill, the weaker the Iraqi governing council becomes, and they have worked hard over the past year to build the council up, especially the security forces. Without the governing council, there will be no reconstruction, no elections, no reduction in US troop numbers, and in short, a complete failure of US policy in Iraq.

The Sunnis and Shiites of Iraq seem to be uniting against their perceived common enemy of the US, which is exactly what the US doesn't want to happen. There are two wild cards in Iraq, the Shiites and the Kurds. Neither have committed themselves to opposing or supporting the American occupation. If either of those groups pick a side, it will make a big difference in the progress of the war. Sadr's uprising has gone some way towards getting the Shiites opposed to the US. If the Americans invade Najaf (which is one of the most sacred sites in the world for Shiite Moslems), there is a good chance that Sadr's work will be complete.

I'll leave you with another article about the apparently impending draft:

http://www.spacewar.com/2004/040420154719.soi8dhtt.html